Yantang Dairy (002732): Alternating production capacity release cycle alternates with low temperature trend Restructuring company usher in golden development period
Report Summary: Event: The company’s 2019H1 performance exceeded expectations and operating income6.
99 trillion, +13 for ten years.
85%, net profit attributable to mother 0.
67 ppm, +57 a year.
06%, the performance of the earlier 2018 has improved significantly.
Among them, 2019Q2 revenue was +17 for ten years.
50%, net profit attributable to mother +10 for ten years.
20%, the third quarter of 2019 is expected to return to the mother net profit of 0.
56 trillion, +22 for ten years.
40%, the third quarter will continue to grow rapidly.
The company has an upstream ranch and processing plant industrial chain. The original ranch was supplied to the processing plant. The processing plant uses raw milk to produce finished milk.
Before 2018, the company was restricted by the production capacity of the processing plant. Before 2018, the company had two processing plants, Yanlong Dairy Guangzhou Tianhe Factory and Zhanjiang Yantang.
8 nominal (the above two processing plants have a capacity of 10 respectively.
8 growth rate, 3 growth rate), the company’s 18-year output 14.
4 西安耍耍网 constant, output is limited by capacity.
In 2018, Yanlong Dairy’s Guangzhou Tianhe old factory has ceased production and moved to the new Huangpu factory. The new processing plant was officially put into operation in May 18. At the current stage of capacity conversion and release, we estimate that the daily output of the Guangzhou new processing plant in 19Q2 reached approximately 423 tons.It is expected that the daily production capacity will reach 600 tons after the plant is fully reached in the future. At that time, the company’s total annual production capacity will reach about 25 tons, which is a series of power generation about 18 years ago. The company’s power generation constraints will be gradually resolved.
The company’s performance in 19H1 grew faster than expected due to the 18-year base reduction. In addition, 深圳桑拿网 it mainly benefited from the capacity release of the Guangzhou Huangpu new processing plant in 19Q2. Regarding the reason that the new plant was put into operation in May 18 and the volume was only realized in 19Q2, we believeIt is related to staffing and running-in of the new plant. In 19 years, the transfer of the new plant ‘s capacity utilization rate increased, and 19H2 will continue to increase its performance.
Based on the estimates of the proportion of output in each quarter of 16-18, we expect that the output growth rate of each quarter of 19 years will be 9% / 18% / 19% / 18%, which means that the high growth will continue in the second to fourth quarter.16.
For the first time, the corresponding revenue has increased by 16 each year.
4% (the company’s announcement revealed that it expects revenue and output growth in 2019 to be in the range of 0-25%).
The company’s own dairy industry has a stable supply of milk from the upstream ranches, and its own ranches and strategic cooperative ranches can meet the company’s needs.
The company’s own dairy farm’s own milk production accounts for 1/3. We analyze the company’s three own dairy farms’ annual production capacity: Yangjiang Ranch1.
8 announced that ANZ Animal Husbandry 2.
25 for the first time, Xinao Animal Husbandry 1 candidate (full load about 2.
5 Initial), so the company’s overall upstream raw milk production is about 15 and is expected to increase to 16 in the future.
The company’s upstream ranch production capacity is expected to meet the future market development. At present, the company is deeply cultivating the Guangdong regional market, but its market share in Shenzhen and other places can still be replaced. In the future, it will gradually open blank markets outside Shenzhen and Guangdong Province.
The company’s 19Q2 gross profit margin increased during the period of overlap and the expense ratio fell, and its net profit performance exceeded expectations.
The expense ratio for the 19H1 period was 23 for the 19H1 period.
66% (decade -0.
64pct), the expense ratio during Q2 is 21.
44% (-5% MoM).
The main reason for the decline in the company’s sales expense ratio was that the release of production capacity at the new factory drove revenue growth in the second quarter, and the sales efficiency was more efficient.
The Q2 company’s management expense rate dropped steadily. The previous 18 and 19 years’ management expense rate was relatively high, which was mainly due to the depreciation of the production system of the old plant area and the increase of the expense management expenses after the new plant area was opened.
19H1 company gross profit margin 34.
88% (decade +1.
61pct), net profit attributable to mother 9.
52% (previously +2.
Company earnings forecast and investment rating: We expect the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 to be 1.
45 and 1.
74 trillion, corresponding to EPS are 0.
92 and 1.
The closing prices on July 29, 2019 corresponded to PE values of 2019, 2021, 29, 22 and 19 times, respectively.
We give the company a 35X estimate for 2020, corresponding to a target price of 32.
2 yuan, 49 upward space.
4%, the first coverage given a “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: The company’s capacity release is less than expected, and the company’s Shenzhen and Guangdong overseas markets are less than expected.